Looking at the seeds, I think the most glaring problems are as follows:
Campion over Goetz: Why? Goetz has the better record and has played far more consistently than Campion. This strikes me as a ranking based more on Campion's rep in junior over the past few years, rather than this year.
Fletcher's at #5: I saw BCSS and Xavier play well in a lot of quality tournaments. I saw Fletcher's finish second in a weak division and with only one win of note: a while ago against BCSS. If record alone is the reason then why Campion over Goetz.
Xavier at #7: There is no way this is a #7 seed. If the coaches are willing to forgive Sandalwood's 4 losses in (rightfully) seeding them #9 and Campions inconsistent play then why were they unwilling to overlook a loss to Rick Hansen that only happened because most of the team was not at the game due to a coaching mistake. The fact is that, over the past month, they were the best team in their division and one of the few Peel teams to make noise in multiple tournaments.
Having said the above, I see the playoffs progressing this way:
- 5. Fletcher's over 12. Pocock: The 11 and 12 teams are much weaker than the rest of the field.
- 6. BCSS over 11. Augustine: Their top players are simply too much for Augustine.
- 7. Xavier over 10. Carmel: Carmel suffers from Xavier's too-low seeding.
- 9. Sandalwood over 8. Gonzaga: Sandalwood may be the lower seed but they are a much stronger and much deeper team.
- 1. D'Youville over 9. Sandalwood: Despite all the sandalwood hype, they lost both games to a more athletic D'Youville team that has played in more quality tournaments.
- 7. Xavier over 2. Campion: Maybe it's fate; the too-low seed against the too-high seed. Xavier simply has too much height and too many scoring threats.
- 3. Goetz over 6. BCSS: This will be the best game of the second round and the closest. I could just as easily see it going the other way. I'll take Goetz on the home court and with a bit of a depth advantage.
- 5. Fletcher's over 4. Joan of Arc: Fletcher's gets a gift in the second round: Joan of Arc is 4th by default but they are no better than the 11th best team in Peel.
- 1. D'Youville over 5. Fletcher's: The undeserved hype ends here. D'Youville has been in too many top tournaments; played too many competitive games in a tough division; and will have too many quality players for Fletcher's.
- 7. Xavier over 3. Goetz: While the teams might have split the season series, Xavier made Goetz look ordinary last week and didn't have Stefan for their close loss last month.
Despite some issues with seeding, I think the two best teams in Peel will still meet in the final. As far as I know they have not played each other this season so there are a lot of unknowns. Does D'Youville's athleticism and stronger D trump Xavier's height and superior outside shooting? D'Youville looked like the stronger team in the first part of the season but Xavier has looked better down the stretch. Both teams have coaching issues: Lack of experience for one team and lack of control over the wannabe coach in the stands for the other. Will this come down to something as simple as D'Youville's home court advantage or perhaps Xavier's confidence from the Rimrocker will win the day?
I'm going to flip a coin and say Xavier in O/T.